You say that the 50% answer makes an unwarranted assumption that the coin is a fair coin. That's a bit of a sneaky example and does not do a great job in separating the two types of skeptic. It seems to me that, given the context, it was a warranted assumption. Now, if the context had been one where you are better major money and especially if doing so around people you don't know and who look disreputable, THEN the second level of skepticism becomes sensible and the fairness assumption unwarranted.
But maybe I'm only arguing this because I picked 50% as the answer.
Excellent article. You have talent ! Keep up the great work.
You say that the 50% answer makes an unwarranted assumption that the coin is a fair coin. That's a bit of a sneaky example and does not do a great job in separating the two types of skeptic. It seems to me that, given the context, it was a warranted assumption. Now, if the context had been one where you are better major money and especially if doing so around people you don't know and who look disreputable, THEN the second level of skepticism becomes sensible and the fairness assumption unwarranted.
But maybe I'm only arguing this because I picked 50% as the answer.